UPDATE: The Delta CEO told CNBC the new changes to the program will be announced “in the coming days”!
Tomorrow is the DAL Q earnings call (disclaimer neither Chris or I hold or plan to hold DAL stock anytime soon). It will be interesting to see what impacts higher fares, higher oil prices and the 9/14 bomb shell Medallion program changes as well as Sky Club access news all have on the company.
It also sounds like, from all the chatter around the web, that tomorrow may be the day Delta tells us just what the program rollbacks will be (the CEO Ed Bastian that many are now calling “Fast Eddie” hinted that the company will make adjustments).
So with this in mind I thought it would be good to share my thoughts of what Delta will likely do, if not tomorrow, very soon in an attempt to stop folks from jumping ship and giving up on Delta and becoming a free agent, that is, flying Delta when convenient but also flying other airlines rather than blind loyalty to only Delta. Let’s dive in.
Spending levels. They are going to drop. I expect:
- Diamond 35k down to 30k
- Platinum 18k down to 15k
- Gold 12k down to 10k
- Silver 6k down to 5k
I do not see Delta returning to anything but spend needed for status. They have gone all-in on only money counts as your loyalty to them and we should all remember the end goal is still to reach what they have already announced. Are these numbers low enough to matter? To some yes but for a bunch of folks reaching the current $20,000 in Delta spend per year is a number way too high (btw that is the point and what Delta wants). Thus a bunch more folks will have to get used to the new norm of being a mid-tier elite at Gold or Platinum.
Delta credit card earnings: They are also going to be more rewarding. I expect:
- Reserve card 10:1 MQDs up to 8:1 MQDs
- Platinum card 20:1 up to 16:1 MQDs
This brings the yearly card spend on a Reserve card back down to near what it was, that is, the better part of a quarter million. Still a ridiculous amount of spend on a card that earns you Delta SkyPennies but way better than a third of million.
Sky Club access. You are going to get a few more visits. I expect:
- Reserve card 10x up to 16x
- Non Delta Amex Platinum cards 6x up to 10x
Clearly a move from unlimited access to giving you a punch card of limited visits still stinks but this will still have a big impact on the thinking of travelers. They will not burn a visit for say a 30 minute sojourn – thus the crowds in the club will shrink but maybe enough for most to still see value in a $550 or $695 per year card fee.
The bigger question is will any of these changes to the announced goals for Delta make any real difference to those who have already bolted from the pen and have now matched and are flying other airlines or to those who have taken a wait and see attitude and now know what they face in 2025? Here is what I think:
Those who have bolted and are happy with the choice will say “see I made the right call“! They will say the rollbacks are not enough (I think they are right). Some on the fence will say, like the bolters, this is still hugely insulting and I am done while others will say I can live with this if they don’t make it worse the following year.
As for the Reserve credit card changes, if you only count the card cost as club access, you are paying just under $35 per visit. That is in line (or slightly lower) with what Delta has historically charged so in their minds is workable. For Platinum card holders you are paying $70 per visit but the card clearly yields so many other perks that club access only is not the point.
So there you are. The above is what I expect Delta will try to sell us on as a workable solution that everyone can live with. Do you agree? – René
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Rene! It will be interesting to watch, but what a punch in the gut the rollover MQM conversion rates are. An elephant in the room when rollbacks are being discussed.
@Greg – I doubt that will be adjusted. They have moved on from MQMs.
My guess, and frankly hope, is that the conversion rates will be adjusted, though I am hardly Ed’s right-hand man.
Yes, they are moving on from MQMs, but in layman’s terms, if not legal ones, the current rates could be said to be misrepresentation. Here’s why: for years now, Delta has told us it is unique among carriers in that any qualification currency not needed would have some value the following year. The rates as now announced are so low as to have almost negligeable value. If one moves from layman’s terms to some hotshot lawyer out there, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a class action. Sure, sure, somebody’s gonna sue them anyway, and may already have. But these current rates just scream misrepresentation in my humble opinion.
We shall see. That’s my hope, and I am stickin’ with it.
@Keith – You know what Delta has more of than jets? Lawyers! Plus they own the points program and the T&C say they can do whatever they want whenever they want so there would be no point in a class action etc.
You’ll note that my main point was layman’s terms of misrepesentation (their reputation is taking an ass-paddling with those conversion rates), before I moved on to legal definition of misrep. More lawyers than jets or not, that doesn’t mean somebody won’t make a lot of noise in court. And — while it wasn’t Skymiles related — all those lawyers they have just settled a class action this week. https://www.tzlegal.com/news/27-million-delta-covid-19-refunds-class-action-settlement/
@Keith – Not remotely the same thing as a frequent flyer program.
So is my math correct? If DM MQD goes to $30k and Reserve spend goes to 8:1 does that mean someone who doesn’t fly at all needs to spend $240k on Reserve to make DM? People who have a large bank of MQMs can now make DM one more year (5k MQD for every 100k MQM). So someone with 425k MQM will have 300k MQM after DL deducts 125k so they will already be halfway to DM on Jan 1/24. This sounds a lot more reasonable than $35k MQDs and 10:1 Amex spend.
@Frankie – I think this is a reasonable compromise. For now. We all know over the next few years they will crank it back up to what they wanted this year.
$30,000.00 is still TOO BIG of a DM jump–50%. I can see $25,000 being fair but not 30–just a lighter gut punch to the loyalty DL verbalizes every time one boards a flight, enters a Sky Club or calls the reservations line.
@Gary – While I agree with you I don’t think Delta will go to 25k (only 5k higher than now). I would be happy to be wrong but doubt it.
how about overseas medallions ?
@shlomo – To quote Gary Leff… overseas medallions need to “stop being poor” and spend up the 30k!
Respectfully to Gary, I sense he may never have lived overseas 😉 It’s not about being poor, it’s about maintaining loyalty, the MQM-only requirement acted like a branded barrier to exit for those who have accrued significant MQMs to stay loyal when living and working overseas. The proposed change of requiring MQDs is short-sighted. Previously it was a win-win for everyone.
With an MQD requirement, it makes no sense to maintain loyalty with Delta in a foreign country where Delta does not operate domestically or have a Sky miles partner or a Delta Amex card in that country. You will now see international travelers consolidating their travel with airlines in the country they live, as giving their international travel to their national carriers will elevate their local status with that airline. Previously Delta had a branded barrier to exit with those accured MQMs.
@Alistair – Know I one billion agree with you and your wisdom but the Rev mgt mothership does not!
Exactly what I was referring to.. Can not get cc locally overseas that USA members can get…
I am going to reflect your sentiment from the article and these changes are not enough. First and foremost is there still is no requirement on flying/flying frequency. You see it all the time in the Delta Facebook and Redditt groups people sharing their Skymiles Dashboard screenshots with Gold or Platinum status, asking how to reach Diamond by the end of the year, with only 8, 10, 15 segments flown in the last 9-10 months. 100% based on income with the ability to charge $150K+ on a credit card, rather than those loyal to your brand. Secondly the SkyClub access limits would still be a deal breaker. 16 visits is consumed in 4 round trips in a year, and many regular business travelers would be locked out after mid-February (the $75k spend goal post is still too high). Delta needs some type of actual flying metric as a part of the mix to award loyal Delta customers and eliminate the club visit limits for Reserve cardholders, and incorporate visit limits and guest access for lower cardholders.
@FDD – Not gonna happen. Miles as part of the program is over. I just don’t see that changing back ever again.
All good points, and whatever the numbers, gates, thresholds or
The message is loud and clear, we don’t care about you, your status or loyalty. They haven’t “moved the goal posts” delta is giving you, the loyal card holder/spender, business flyer and “customer” the biggest middle finger ever, “we don’t want you” we are a bank now. I like many expressed myself and Delta, and was told to piss off. Giving the finger right back, goodbye $550 Reserve card, 15k in flight spend and 30 flights a year.
Although I doubt they will, they need to add some boost back on the reserve card for hitting certain spend and/or add rollover MQDs. Otherwise, there is no incentive to spend $1 more than you need to achieve your target level. A creative approach would be for the boost to be in the form of million mile qualifying points to help with life time status. Alas, Delta never asked me.
@Dan – While I would love that I don’t see this happening either. The reason is they want to make this simple and that is adding a layer they are trying to get rid of. Plus they want to make MM harder to get and that would work against that goal.
I agree with Dan about threshold bonuses, and I think they’ll go that route rather than change the ratios they’ve already proposed. As example, if they give $1,000 MQD bonus at $30k spend on the reserve, that effectively amounts to a 1:7.5 ratio right at $30,000 ($4,000 total, $3,000 from 1:10 ratio plus $1,000 bonus), which is very similar to the 1:8 you suggest.
Flew ATL-LAS last Thursday and returned Monday. Flight out had 13 NRSA’s and still went out with 4 empty seats, while on Monday, 13 NRSA’s and went out with SEVEN empty seats! I fly 2X/month to LAS and NEVER seen ANY empty seats! There has been an impact, although small, an impact nonetheless.
Interesting predictions. I think they are in line with what most people expect. On the MQM front I expect you are right. They might relent a little on the conversion ratio but they wanna kill the big rollover holders. They are giving a decent rdm buyout as a consolation. I personally know of two of my bosses that are sitting on 3-500K of MQM’s that are going to be whacked by this. But I get the logic, both of them were going to Japan and AUS just about every week in J.
Japan and Austin?
Still 100% unacceptable. Let’s forget status earning for a minute…it’s still too high and that number was going to come down organically as the “Covid Elites” begin to thin out.
However – assuming you are correct on the 16 visits – and as long as AA and UA have comparably priced CC’s that offer unlimited lounge access and priority baggage handling, etc. I am NOT staying with Delta beyond this upcoming year.
As FormerDeltaDiamond stated previously, 16 visits is 4 round trips. That is SO not working for me.
@TravelWarr – You will just need to knock out the $75 CC spend to be exempt for 2 years. Yes I know a lot of spend but there are ways to get it done for limited cost.
I canceled several Delta AmEx cards today, although I’m keeping the Reserve. When the rep asked me why I was canceling, I told him it was due to Skymiles changes. He responded, “You wouldn’t believe how many times I’ve been told that in the past two weeks.”
@Mike – Not shocked at all to hear this.
I am a Diamond and 3m flyer and have already status matched on UA to 1-K and have moved 6 flights Q4 to them. Let’s see what happens next as it might take the edge off feeling used but probably not enough to make me a Delta at almost all costs flyer like I once was.
@Steve – Would my guested at revised number make you return to Delta or would it have to be lower?
This will actually make it easier for me to make platinum. I fly 6-8 times a year, and spend 120k on the Reserve card. That gives me 60k MQMs plus whatever I get for flying. At 8:1 120k spend will get me 15000 MQDs, enough for platinum without flying at all.
For me, the train has left the station. Only way back for me and retain Reserve card is BOTH MQD rollover of excess dollars AND ability to gift MQD at spend levels of $30000, $60,000…
Delta, thanks for the memories over the past couple of decades. The upgrades, visits to the SkyClub, and mileage runs (remember Tokyo?) were so much fun! And you were always there for me when travel got messy. We had a good run together but it’s clear you and I now want two different things from this relationship. It’s time for us to go our separate ways. Don’t worry about me – I’m resilient and will be just fine. In fact, I’ve already started seeing other airlines. I wish you all the best and hope you find the profits you’re looking for.
My wife’s DL Platinum is done after renewal. We will downgrade to Gold for the next year to continue to get the 15% discount but once her SkyMiles are gone it will be down to Blue the next year.
My DL Reserve will be downgraded to Platinum after renewal so that I get the better companion pass. I have a Gold that I got a year ago. That will be closed or converted to Blue.
I’m keep my AX Platinum at least for the next year and will need to re-assess for 2025.
I’ve already converted 1 trip to AA and will look at using them more. Unfortunately DL really did me in and I’m not going to out of my way to fly them.
I have to tell a good story about Delta. I recently left my charger in a Sky Club. I contacted someone I know at Delta with photos of the charger (which I got from Amazon where I bought it from). They couldn’t find it (they e-mailed me a picture of a different one). To my surprise, a week or so later, a brand new charger, exactly the same as the one I lost, arrived. I know it was new because it was in a box, unopened. I realize this is exceptional, especially since I really didn’t deserve it as the loss was completely my fault, but it does show they care. This kind of caring is why I fly with them. It has nothing to do with their loyalty program, which I agree went too far even though I like the basic idea of pooling MQD and MQD Waiver if they are going to make loyalty based on spending. Thank you Delta.
@ J.L.: Excellent and very clever post! I think it shows very plainly that for many of us our relationship with Delta was…an actual relationship.
But like so many other relationships (looking at you Wendy from college!) unfortunately there comes a time when we must part ways.
Just flew DL to SLC from PHL and will be through ATL next week. I’ve been letting all the bartenders I ‘somewhat’ know in the SC’s that I too am breaking up with Delta. More than a few have mentioned they’ve been hearing that “a lot” so maybe in some small way that helps get the word to Big Ed too?
I will miss them but in the words of Jimmy B. it’s just, “changes in latitudes, changes in attitudes… nothing remains quite the same”.
Left out of all discussions to date is, how will Delta retain elite spend after hitting the 35,000 MQD threshold? Will there be roll over MQD’s changes at some point?
We discussed that last month.