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Ugh. This is not good. One would think with the encouraging early results from a number of early COVID19 vaccine trials, as well as COVID19 treatments, that we would never see the following:
“Kuryla now has to consider a once-unthinkable scenario where cruising remains banned indefinitely. If that were to happen, he said, PortMiami would exhaust half of its reserves by the end of 2021 before the county would consider a new operating model, possibly pivoting to more cargo and halting the construction projects.” – nbcmiami.com (bold mine)
But I have to tell you I am in fear that the amazing cruising experience, as it was pre-COVID19, may truly never ever return.
Cruise stocks were all but destroyed early this year and have recovered – a little (disclaimer: I currently hold no cruise stocks). But I doubt any of them will survive bankruptcy and other financial minds are calling for you to sell your stocks now on any moves up. I would agree.
I have no plans to get on a ship in 2020. I would love to – but clearly it is not safe. I may not get on a ship in 2021. Heck, I may not even get on an airplane till late in 2021 (shudder). Things are going to have to get MUCH better before I consider any kind of travel safe (other than my car).
I wonder if any travel related company will survive without massive down sizing as well as bankruptcy. – René
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I am planning to cruise again next year.
If you look at the situation currently from a business POV, it makes sense. Container shipping is increasing and not as affected by any pandemic. The entire cruise line industry is directly and almost immediately negatively effected by both geopolitical issues and by health issues.
How many times do you read about some cruise ship where 50% of everyone on board is sick? It is not rare and I’m not aware of any cruise line removing the current HVAC systems and replacing them with hospital grade HEPA filtration with UV light systems to kill anything that may have not been filtered out by the HEPA systems.
If you are the person in charge of the Miami Port, the safe bet is not cruises, but container ships. And the space they have for container shipping is small by comparison to the cruise line foot print.
Nostalgia wise I agree with enjoying the sight of cruise ships chugging into or out of the Dodge Island harbor via Government Cut.
First off, yes things are bad and will stay this bad or even get a bit worse. That said, long term everything will be fine. I’m from Miami and saw the explosion of growth on Dodge Island (where the port is located) continue over decades. I even worked as a travel agent in the port for a while. The underlying factors that made Miami the cruise capital of the USA, if not the world, will still be there in five years: large airport nearby, strong local population base, but mostly location. There simply is no other place that combines these factors in the US.
@Christian
“There simply is no other place that combines these factors in the US.”
I think you are overlooking Fort Lauderdale, the airport is almost next door to the cruise line port.
ST
@Steve – The NYC port does a rather brisk business as well (well, they did). Maybe not next to the airport but many hotels you can stay at and walk to the port in no time.
I am shocked that you find this surprising or sad. You a travel blogger who proclaimed very soon after the outbreak in the United States that you were not going to get on a plane for at least the remainder of 2020. As far as the cruise, you said you had no idea when you will feel safe enough to cruise again. In the post today you have moved your personal time frame out to late 2021 for air travel, at the earliest! Since there will never be an “all-clear re this virus, my question to you is what are you going to need to see, what metric has to be met, for you to say you will get back on a plane, let alone a cruise? With this post you have moved your timeline back almost a full year. My question is why? What did you learn that made you hedge your bets from early 2021 to now late 2021?
The second time you posted those thoughts back in March, I replied back that you are certainly free to make your personal travel decisions, but if you’re waiting till at least 2021 to travel by air or ship, don’t be surprised if there is nothing left to come back to. I meant Airlines and certainly cruise lines…and I guess cruise ports. You and some of the commenters disagreed with me saying that somehow the airlines can/will survive with virtually no traffic. They won’t.
I guess my point is is that when it comes to viruses, there will never be an all clear. You, a travel blogger have moved your personal time frame back to late 2021….at the earliest. Ok, your decision, but if everyone does the same as you, be prepared to not only have no airline or cruise ship to take you anywhere in 11/21, but be prepared that even if you drive to your destination, you may arrive to a city, resort or town which will be a smoldering heap of closed hotels, restaurants, businesses and shops. Throw in 25% unemployment. Sounds nice.
To look on the bright side, maybe you can start blogging about the nicest Walmarts, targets or Home Depots to visit across the country. Those mega-stores will ALWAYS be open as we know that the many people who pass through their doors are immune from the virus. Up until this week, weren’t even required to wear masks.
You know what I find to be sad. In the previous 500 years until Covid #19, we’ve managed to continue life without delaying needed surgery/medical treatment, suspending classroom education, destroying an economy, destroying small and large businesses (travel) and bankrupting families (in June a full 1/3 of mortgage payments were either not paid or paid after a 10 day grace period!). One more looming disaster, the federal $600 unemployment supplements end this week or next. But hey, that’s OK. Only a mere 53 million people have filed unemployment claims in the past 18 weeks. I cannot imagine the despair and depression for people who are out of work and terrified to leave their home. And now it looks like if they ever do get a job, will have to figure out what to do with their children because well schools are never going to open. Why can’t classes be held at the local Walmart…or the grocery store?
At some point in time, and that time is now, a country has to decide a better balance between protecting against the virus while not destroying everything that makes life worth LIVING. All in a futile effort to manage the unmanageable. Even worse, I fear this is going to be the protocol going forward when (not if) the next virus hits. Lightly, I keep thinking about that old saying, a fate worse than death…..
@Rolo T – You are correct that I was one of the first (in the travel blogger space) to call for the end of travel for 2020. It is not currently safe to fly, cruise or take just about any public transport. Those are the simple facts until the virus is brought under control. I will not put those I love (or myself) at risk until it is safe to travel. That may be a very long time from now.
As to the economic impacts in the travel space, do keep in mind airlines have flown in bankruptcy many times over the years and I think all of them will again in 2021. We shall see if cruising survives at all (it may not).
This is not a finance or political blog and many of the points you bring up are maybe best considered on another site IMO.
Roto T You bring up some interesting points about our SIP status..Will it ever end or will people just say they have had it and brave out into the world…. Time will tell
I have flown 3 times since april and have felt mostly safe. Of course I flew Delta which has committed to keeping middle seats empty. I truely appreciate that. But it’s definately not necessary as there were about 15, 35, 50 people on the flights…definately socially distant. BTW I use a mask AND face shield and wipe down my seat area with my own alcohol wipes.
There certainly is no option to travel to the EU and who would wants to be so far from home in these times!! I am hoping next summer will be better but who knows…the rest of the world may be safer but they’re not going to allow Americans to come and infect them.